How to read the table
Chip share is a player’s fraction of all chips in play. ICM $EV is the expected prize under the Independent Chip Model, and chip EV is the naive value: chip share × prize pool. ICM vs chip EV is the gap between the two, positive for short stacks and negative for big stacks.
Example: three players, 50/30/20
Stacks of 5,000, 3,000 and 2,000 chips and a 100-unit prize pool paid 50/30/20.
| Player | Chips | Chip EV | ICM EV |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5,000 | 50.0 | 38.4 |
| 2 | 3,000 | 30.0 | 32.7 |
| 3 | 2,000 | 20.0 | 28.9 |
The chip leader owns half the chips but only 38% of the money. That gap is the reason the big stack should avoid coin flips against the second stack and why the short stack can fold hands it would shove for chips.
What ICM means for decisions
Near the bubble, losing chips costs more than winning the same amount gains, so a 55% edge is often not enough to call an all-in. For deal making, ICM is the fairest starting point for a final-table chop: enter the stacks and the remaining prizes to see each player’s share. The model does have limits. It ignores blinds, position and skill, and future game simulations refine it, but for chops and push/fold study Malmuth-Harville remains the reference.
Use the bankroll calculator for the long-run view of tournament variance and the EV calculator for single decisions in chips.